With bitcoin already breaking its previous all-time highs on several occasions during this cycle, including a peak of over $124,500 marked just a few days ago, analysts and commentators are now speculating whether the top is already in.
The veteran trader Peter Brandt cited on-chain metrics shared by Colin Talks Crypto and gave it a 30% chance that BTC has already peaked.
Peak Is In?
The initial post relied on historical data to determine that the BTC top has previously occurred around the 37th month after the low marked during the preceding bear market. It reads that the cycle bottom this time around was on November 22, 2022, when the cryptocurrency’s price had tumbled to under $16,000 at one point following the collapses of FTX and a few other companies that followed suit.
37 months later would be December 22 this year. If history repeats, the digital asset’s price still has a lot of room to grow as the model predicts a price surge to a top of $200,000. This is still far from the current ATH, as BTC would need to register a 60% surge to achieve that milestone.
Brandt, though, had a different view on the matter. He said there’s a 30% chance BTC has already peaked in this cycle, and what follows would be a painful correction. Every bull market has been followed by a bearish phase, which has driven the asset south hard.
In Brandt’s prediction, bitcoin’s inevitable nosedive will take it to somewhere around $60,000 and $70,000 by November 2026, which would be a lot higher than the previous lows.
The next bull run, though, will be smashing, according to the trader. He believes BTC will fly to a massive target of half a million dollars.
I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle. Next stop then back to $60k to $70k by Nov 2026, then next bull thrust to $500k https://t.co/xPujqCjp9e
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 15, 2025
$500K Per BTC?
Given bitcoin’s current circulating supply of 19.9 million BTC, we can calculate that a price tag of $500,000 would rocket the asset’s market capitalization to almost $10 trillion (it would be higher in reality since there will be more units mined at the time). That’s a 325% surge from the current levels.
Such a promising future would turn bitcoin into the second-largest asset by that metric, according to current numbers. CompaniesMarketCap data shows that gold would still be the undisputed leader, with a market cap of $22.7 trillion.
However, companies like NVIDIA ($4.4 trillion), Microsoft ($3.860 trillion), and Apple ($3.4 trillion) would be far behind.
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