With bitcoin (BTC) having remained in a consolidation phase for a relatively long time, market participants are wondering about its next direction. Some analysts have predicted a significant correction in the coming weeks, while others believe a positive breakout is imminent.
Despite the state of the market and negative sentiment within a part of the crypto community, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex insist BTC is biased to the upside. This means the cryptocurrency has a higher chance of climbing up than declining.
Bulls In Structural Control
According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, the Bitcoin market has been defending the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) of $98,220 despite recent volatility. Although BTC has fallen below range lows in recent weeks, the asset has found support at the STHRP.
Analysts termed this a constructive signal, indicating that bulls remain in structural control. Bitcoin’s resilience also supports the belief that underlying momentum is skewed to the bullish side.
The STH cost basis has been rising and is now hovering around $99,474, indicating persistent accumulation by newer market participants. This cohort of investors is led by institutional buyers purchasing BTC through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and balance sheet allocations.
Amid this consolidation phase, Bifinex says bitcoin’s short-term momentum is weakening at range highs. Futures market traders have been closing their positions around levels seen between July 2 and 4. This suggests that while bulls are in structural control, they are unable to trigger and sustain significant price rallies. Hence, the market is still in need of fresh catalysts or clearer macroeconomic signals before prices can surge.
BTC Whales Are Redistributing
Meanwhile, BTC whales are in a distribution phase. Since July 4, mid-sized wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been slashing their holdings. With more than 14,000 BTC offloaded since June 30, the market is witnessing a cautious stance among high-cap investors.
As whales continue to redistribute amid macro uncertainty, retail and institutional investors are absorbing the supply. So far this month, STHs have increased their collective holdings by more than 382,000 BTC, nearly the same amount as was offloaded by long-term holders. Their purchases have been driving market momentum this month.
“This divergence points to a redistribution of coins from crypto natives to newer entrants and institutions, many likely motivated by recent price dips and renewed macro interest following the strong performance of the equities markets,” Bitfinex stated.
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