Ethereum (ETH) has plunged below a key metric known as its realized price, a level that often indicates market capitulation.
Observers say this means that ETH is now undervalued, with the asset trading at $1,570, down 16.7% this week and 56.6% in the last 12 months.
Why the Realized Price Matters?
According to pseudonymous CryptoQuant author “theKriptolik,” the realized price is a fundamental measure of investor psychology. Unlike market price, which fluctuates on the basis of trading activity, it calculates the value of ETH based on the last transfer price of each coin. Essentially, it shows the average cost at which all ETH last moved on-chain.
This metric now sits below the current market value, and, in theKriptolik’s analysis, when that happens, most ETH holders are in loss territory, possibly triggering two reactions.
First, it can lead to short-term panic selling as more investors see their positions in the red, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty, much like now, with President Donald Trump’s new trade policies wreaking havoc on both the traditional and crypto markets.
This fear-driven dumping pushes prices even lower, as seen when ETH briefly touched $1,431 before a slight rebound.
However, according to theKriptolik, whenever ETH goes below its realized price, it is usually followed by strong recoveries. In their opinion, such drops can mark prime accumulation zones as investors wait for subsequent rallies.
Bearish Short-Term
Nonetheless, the asset’s short-term outlook remains messy. After a tumultuous start to the year, when it registered one of its worst-ever performances in a quarter, ETH has continued its downward spiral.
Although at the time of writing it was up 5% in 24 hours, it fared worse than the broader crypto market over seven days, losing nearly 17% of its value compared to the market’s 8.8% in that time. Sentiment is also deteriorating fast, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 24, reflecting “fear.”
Adding to the complexity is the delay of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade. Originally expected this month, it has been postponed to May 7. While not uncommon, such delays can shake confidence during already bearish times.
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