Bitcoin has kicked off the week on a strong note as it trades above $107K, while recovering from the Israel-Iran sell-off. Interestingly, both retail investors and whales appear to be firmly holding their positions.
In fact, Bitcoin inflows to Binance from both the whale and retail cohorts have dropped to their lowest levels since the start of the current cycle.
BTC Investors Unified in Holding Mode
According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, this rare solidarity signals a strong preference for holding rather than selling. Such behavior in both investor classes exhibits high conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Historically, synchronized inflows from whales and retail investors have occurred at major market tops. However, the current decline in deposits suggests a significant shift in strategy, as participants appear to be positioning for further upside rather than exiting.
The sharp drop in activity may also indicate investors are awaiting clearer macroeconomic cues before making major moves. Despite this, the unified behavior, seen in both large-scale and small-scale holders, is indicative of a constructive outlook for Bitcoin.
Zooming out, Glassnode reported a decisive shift in Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew, which turned bullish over the past week despite a modest price dip. The 1-week skew flipped from -2.6% to +10.1%, while the 1-month moved from -2.2% to +4.9%, depicting strong near-term upside expectations.
Bitcoin Shakes Off Geopolitical Jitters
Adding to the sense of stability in the market, QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s response to recent geopolitical tensions has remained notably composed.
After initial jitters sparked by Iran-Israel headlines last Friday, the crypto asset quickly rebounded from a weekly low of $102.8K to $107K. This recovery mirrored gains in large-cap tokens and US equity futures. Institutional support appears to be a major driver in this aspect, as Metaplanet and Strategy continued to accumulate, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered a seventh consecutive week of inflows.
BTC’s ability to hold above the crucial $100K level, even during a 3% pullback, contrasts with the 8% drop seen during similar geopolitical events in April last year.
QCP Capital further explained that the implied volatility remains subdued, and BTC frontend vols below 40 and the VIX near 20. These levels are typically inconsistent with increased global risk. While flows into US Treasuries and Asian bonds suggest some caution, markets have not shifted into full risk-off mode.
However, analysts warn that escalation, such as an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or US military involvement, could trigger broader market disruption. Ironically, such scenarios “could prove structurally bullish for BTC.”
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