The next few months will be crucial for precious metals like gold and silver, as the market will likely move in either a bullish or bearish direction. Regardless of the market’s direction, an analysis by the crypto exchange Bybit has made it clear that macroeconomic factors will play a massive role in the outcome.
According to a report written in collaboration with the forex market insights platform FXStreet, Bybit believes that gold and silver could experience a bull run in the coming weeks.
Fed May Lower Interest Rates
The report emphasizes that interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve will significantly impact the price trajectory of precious metals. While gold has reached new highs, silver still has more upside. Regardless, on-chain metrics suggest significant room for rallies in both assets.
Two days ago, gold hit an all-time high (ATH) at $3,508 per ounce, surpassing its previous record of $3,500 set on April 22. At the time, the surge could be attributed to the market uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. This time, however, analysts have tied gold’s upswing to expectations of a potential interest rate cut later this month.
The Fed last cut rates in December; if the agency lowers rates this month, it would mark the first time this year. There are expectations that the rates will be reduced from 4.5% to 4.25%, and the figure could fall further if additional cuts are made in November and December.
On The Brink of a Bull Run
Gold is already up 32% this year, but analysts have set a medium-term target of $4,000 by year-end. If gold reaches that level, it would have risen 14% from its current price. On its part, silver has outperformed gold, increasing 40% year-to-date (YTD). However, the precious metal is still trading just above $40, which is below its ATH of $50 recorded in April 2011. The asset needs to rise an additional 25% to revisit and possibly surpass the $50.
These rallies will be possible if the Fed cuts rates this month and follows up with similar moves in November and December. When regulatory agencies cut interest rates, money tends to leave banks and bonds and move into alternative stores of value. These alternatives include cryptocurrencies, stocks, and metals.
Although gold offers no yield, it becomes one of the most attractive safe-haven assets when rates fall. Additionally, the broader macroeconomic environment also favors metals, especially when global debt levels are rising and concerns persist over fiscal deficits and inflation.
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