Internet giant Google has accelerated its timeline for post-quantum migration to just three years away, but most Bitcoiners disagree.
“Google’s introducing a 2029 timeline to secure the quantum era with post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration,” the search giant stated in a blog post on Wednesday.
It stated that urgency stems from two key threats, including “store-now-decrypt-later” attacks. This is where bad actors collect encrypted data today to decrypt it once quantum computers are powerful enough.
The second threat is the future risk quantum computers pose to digital signatures used in authentication, such as for crypto assets.
“This new timeline reflects migration needs for the PQC era in light of progress on quantum computing hardware development, quantum error correction, and quantum factoring resource estimates.”
The Quantum Threat to Cryptography
Google stated that quantum computers will pose a “significant threat” to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures. This directly impacts crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which use these signatures and cryptography to secure the networks.
The Bitcoin debate has been simmering for the past year, and the community is split. Some argue for upgrading cryptography and enabling voluntary migration to quantum-resistant signatures, while others say intervention would violate Bitcoin’s core principle that private keys control coins.
“I’m sure Bitcoin can agree on a path forward, write and test a series of updates, soft fork them in, and fully migrate 50 million addresses in three years. Especially with how proactive the core devs are being,” said Bitcoiner Nic Carter.
In February, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin unveiled a quantum-resistant roadmap for the network.
Serious Investors Unfazed
Galaxy Digital’s research head Alex Thorn said earlier this month that the risk is “real but recognized.” He said that not all wallets are equally vulnerable, and most of them are not at risk today. “Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain,” he said.
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Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor said in February that the industry “would see it coming” and it would prompt coordinated software upgrades across global banking systems, internet infrastructure, crypto protocols, consumer devices, and AI networks.
Meanwhile, a March 11 report from Ark Invest claimed that the threat is likely years or decades away. “Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin. Meaningful breakthroughs would disrupt internet security first, triggering coordinated responses well beyond Bitcoin,” the researchers wrote.
They said it would be a “gradual technological progression—not a sudden ‘Q-day’ event,” giving markets and the Bitcoin network time to adapt.
Google doesn’t appear to share its confidence, however.
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