The next Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision is due on Wednesday, June 18th, at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
The cryptocurrency market, akin to that of legacy stocks, is largely correlated with the US fiscal policy and any news other than the expected are likely to have an impact.
The FOMC Meeting June 17-18
The US Federal Reserve will meet today and tomorrow and markets are expecting critical policy statements regarding the institution’s fiscal stance.
Experts seem to be of the opinion that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, despite the mounting political pressure against Chairman Jerome Powell.
Recall that acting president Donald Trump launched a wave of recent attacks, stating on multiple occasions that an interest rate cut is long overdue, citing ECB’s decision to lower rates recently (yet again).
In fact, this also seems to be the consensus trade on the world’s largest prediction market – Polymarket.
The odds of the Fed cutting rates tomorrow are 1% according to traders. The next meeting is scheduled to take place on July 29-30, followed by the first Autumn meeting held on September 16-17. According to Polymarket bettors, there’s a 19% chance of a 25 bps decrease in July – a number that increases to 41% for September.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets?
Well, Bitcoin is up by about 1.6% in the past 30 days. Taken in a vacuum, this could mean that investors are aligned with expectations and are waiting for a more decisive signal on behalf of the Fed. However, if we take a closer look at the charts, we can see the volatile nature of BTC’s range-bound movement thorughout this period.
On a few occasions, the cryptocurrency charted gains upwards of 7-8% in just a few days and subsequent declines, which more or less means that its price has been reacting to global macroeconomic and geopolitical events considerably. This makes it hard to gauge how are traders positioned for tomorrow’s decision. If history is any indicator, though, an expected outcome is unlikely to cause substantial movement. Anything other than that, of course, will most probably send ripples across Bitcoin and, by extension – the rest of the market.
But what about later on? Well, there are growing expectations, not just on Polymarket, that the Fed will cut rates in September. If that coincides with favorable developments amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the trade conflicts spurred by Donald Trump’s tariff war, the broader crypto industry could be headed for a bullish last quarter.
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